The global Adiponitrile Market is projected to witness substantial growth, expanding from USD 9.1 Billion in 2022 to an estimated USD 17.3 Billion by 2032, registering a notable CAGR of 5.6%. This growth trajectory is primarily attributed to the increasing demand for adiponitrile in the production of hexamethylene diamide (HMDA), thereby propelling the global adiponitrile market forward.
Commercially, Adiponitrile is predominantly manufactured through two main processes. The most prevalent method involves the hydrocyanation of butadiene in the presence of a nickel-based catalyst, a process pioneered by Dupont. Alternatively, adiponitrile can be produced through the hydrodimerization of acrylonitrile via electrolytic coupling. Globally, the majority of adiponitrile is utilized for the production of hexamethylene diamine (HMDA), with over 90% of HMDA serving as a precursor for polyamide 66, underscoring the critical role of adiponitrile in the polyamide 66 supply chain.
As of 2022, the global adiponitrile capacity stood at 2280 thousand tons, marking a significant increase of 36.5% since 2016. This capacity expansion is primarily driven by the escalating demand for Polyamide 66, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. Industry leaders such as Invista and Ascend have undertaken capacity expansions across various plant locations worldwide. For instance, Invista augmented its US capacity by 60 thousand tons at its existing plant in Victoria (Texas), USA, in 2020, and further expanded its capacity at Butachimie by 100 thousand tons.
Additionally, Invista commissioned its 400 thousand tons adiponitrile plant in China in 2022, positioning itself as the largest producer in the country. This strategic move was prompted by evolving trade dynamics and robust industrial growth in China, rendering domestic production more advantageous. Following suit, Ascend also increased its US plant capacity by 180 thousand tons through phased expansions in 2019 and 2022. In China, domestic players like Taichen Qixiang have contributed to capacity expansion with a 300 thousand tons adiponitrile facility in Shandong Province. Overall, the global adiponitrile market is dominated by a few key players, affording them significant margins.
However, in light of looming overcapacity and slower-than-anticipated growth, Invista announced the closure of its Orange, Texas plant in October 2023. Subsequently, the company plans to shut down its HMDA plant at the same location by mid-2024.
In 2022, global demand for adiponitrile will reach 1388 thousand tons, with the entirety allocated to the production of HMDA. Projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% during 2023-2032, the adiponitrile market is expected to mirror the trends observed in the global polyamide 66 market. End-use industries such as automotive, electrical & electronics, consumer goods & appliances, and textiles are anticipated to be primary drivers of polyamide 66 demand, consequently stimulating the adiponitrile market.
Regionally, North America emerges as the largest consumer of adiponitrile, owing to its significant HMDA and polyamide production capacities. The USA, in particular, accounts for all adiponitrile demand in North America, with a substantial HMDA capacity of 1060 thousand tons in 2022. This demand is primarily met by key players such as Invista and Ascend. Following North America, Asia Pacific represents the second-largest demand hub for adiponitrile, with China and Japan as the primary consumers due to their HMDA production capacities. Although China leads in adiponitrile consumption, a considerable portion is imported, though this reliance is expected to diminish with the addition of new production capacities. In Japan, Asahi Kasei dominates the consumption landscape with its integrated plant.
In Western Europe, France and Italy emerge as major consumers of adiponitrile, with France accounting for a significant portion of regional demand. BASF's integrated adiponitrile and HMDA facility, boasting a production capacity of 400 thousand tons, supports adiponitrile demand in France.
Growing Purchasing Power: Rising economies like India, China, and ASEAN are witnessing an increase in disposable incomes, leading to heightened consumer spending across various sectors. This uptrend in consumer behavior, coupled with urbanization, is driving demand for polyamide 66 and its precursors, including adiponitrile, particularly in industries such as automotive and electronics.
Fluctuation in Feedstock Prices: Adiponitrile's position as a vital chemical intermediate in the polyamide 66 supply chain renders it susceptible to fluctuations in feedstock prices, particularly butadiene and acrylonitrile. The volatility observed in crude oil and natural gas prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has cascading effects on adiponitrile prices and downstream petrochemical products, impacting the profitability of producers within the polyamide 66 supply chain.
Looming Overcapacity in Asia Pacific: While the USA currently leads in adiponitrile production, multiple capacity additions in China are expected to drive the industry toward potential overcapacity. Leading producers such as Invista have already initiated shutdown procedures at certain facilities to mitigate this risk, exemplified by the closure of its Orange, Texas plant in response to the commissioning of its new adiponitrile facility in China.
Adiponitrile can be produced using adipic acid or Butadiene. Adiponitrile is a major raw material for the production of Polyamide 66 fibers and engineering plastic. Other application of Adiponitrile includes the production of Hexamethylene diisocyanide. Adiponitrile is hydrogenated to produce Hexamethylene Diamine (HMDA) which is a major precursor for polyamide 6,6. The adiponitrile market is dominated by very few manufacturers due to technology barriers and environmental clearances. INVISTA and Ascend Performance Material are two major suppliers of Adiponitrile to Nylon 6,6 producers.
There have been no significant capacity additions in the past few decades but due to surging demand for Polyamide 6,6 in the Asia Pacific region, INVISTA has planned to build 300 thousand tons of Adiponitrile plant in China which would come on-stream by 2023. Ascend has planned a 220 thousand tons capacity expansion which will come on-stream by 2019. This will increase the global Adiponitrile capacity from 1495 thousand tons to around 2000 thousand tons. The global Adiponitrile demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3-4% during 2018-2025.
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