Ammonia is generally obtained from natural gas and is considered a basic building block of the world nitrogen fertilizer industry. Other manufacturing process includes coal gasification which is predominantly used in China. The use of ammonia in fertilizers such as urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium phosphate, and ammonium sulphate drives its demand. Most of the ammonia is consumed for fertilizer production and the rest is used in applications such as refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, textiles, explosives, and other chemical industries. Other chemical uses of ammonia include caprolactum, hydrogen cyanide, and acrylonitrile production.
Global ammonia production has witnessed steady growth in the last decade, growing at an annual average rate of around 1.5%, reaching almost 250 million tonnes in 2023. China dominates global ammonia production, accounting for more than 30% of the global production in 2021, followed by Russia, the United States, and India. In the long-term forecast period, around 65 million tonnes of capacity addition is expected to come online majorly in Asia Pacific, the United States, and the Middle East.
Factors such as population growth, rising food requirements, and industrial expansion are some of the key drivers that have influenced the increased ammonia production. Continuous investments in new production facilities and process improvements have further propelled capacity expansion in recent years. Natural gas is mainly used as a raw material to make ammonia through a process called the Haber-Bosch process. The availability of natural gas plays a vital role in ammonia production. Regions with huge natural gas reserves and access to reliable gas supply infrastructure lead in terms of production and market competitiveness.
Other than China, all other ammonia capacities will use natural gas as a raw material.
Global Ammonia demand is projected to cross 230 million tonnes by 2032, from the current demand of nearly 190 million tonnes in 2023 primarily driven by increasing consumption in the Agriculture Industry. The growth in fertilizer demand has historically been associated with the increase in food consumption, driven by factors such as population growth and GDP. It is anticipated that this trend will continue in the future.
Agriculture end use is the largest consumer of ammonia accounting for around 80% of the global ammonia demand. Ammonia-based fertilizers such as Urea, Nitrates, DAP/MAP, NPK, and Others provide essential nutrients to crops, enhancing their growth and yield. Of the 147 million tonnes of Fertilizer Ammonia consumed in 2021, urea accounted for more than 52% of the total demand followed by Nitrates and NPK. Ammonia is also used in consumer appliances, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and other industries.
The demand for ammonia in industrial end-use industries accounted for the remaining share and it is projected to witness a slightly higher rate during the forecast period. Globally, the consumption of ammonia is estimated to grow at a steady pace while the Asia Pacific region will experience above-average growth during the forecast period. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the fertilizer industry remained unaffected as governments recognized the critical importance of ensuring food security and therefore prioritized food security, ammonia plants around the world continued their operations without disruptions.
The United States is the largest importer of ammonia, with imports reaching approximately 2,638 kt in 2021. The volume of ammonia imports in the United States has been declining steadily from 5,314 kt in 2015 to the current levels. This reduction can be attributed to the consistent and low ammonia prices observed in recent years, which have made it economically feasible for ammonia manufacturers in the US to upgrade or expand their ammonia plants.
India is the second largest importer of ammonia, with an average import volume of around 2,400 kt during the period of 2016 to 2021. On the other hand, Russia is the biggest exporter of ammonia with exports of around 4400 kilo tons in 2021 representing almost 20% of global trade, followed by Trinidad, Indonesia, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia.
The quest for sustainable fuel and fertilizer production has brought ammonia into the spotlight. Conventional methods of ammonia production contribute significantly to global CO2 emissions, but there are ongoing efforts to revolutionize its production and achieve a carbon-free future. To address the environmental challenges associated with conventional ammonia production, research and development efforts are focused on renewable pathways.
Enhancing efficiency and cost-effectiveness are key priorities for companies such as Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), ITOCHU, and Ube Industries. They are driving the development and marketing of a sustainable form of ammonia known as Blue Ammonia. Major ammonia-producing nations like China, Russia, India, and the United States are also taking steps to tackle the environmental impact of ammonia production.
Ammonia holds promise for decarbonizing other industries as well. It can serve as an alternative fuel in the shipping industry to meet emissions reduction mandates, and it aligns with decarbonization goals and the potential for decarbonizing coal-fired power plants. Efforts are being made globally, with collaborative alliances, to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 2050.
Leading economies in Europe and the United States are spearheading carbon-zero targets, while progress is also being made in Asian economies such as China and India. The establishment of the "Blue Ammonia Alliance" by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Australia is a significant development. This alliance aims to create a global blue ammonia supply chain, with the UAE emerging as a major exporter of blue ammonia for power generation and transportation.
Ongoing research and development efforts are focused on advancing production processes to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. Technologies such as solid oxide electrolysis cells and solid-state ammonia synthesis are being explored to promote sustainable and efficient ammonia production. Pilot projects and demonstrations, like the "Hydrogen and Ammonia Demonstration Project" in Australia, showcase the exportable energy carrier potential of blue ammonia.
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